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Old 12-11-2005, 09:58 PM
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Default Re: vulnerable overpair on a very coordinated board

PREFLOP: You have two aggressive players here with the action starting from middle position, you hand is still very strong for the situation. I think your cap is just fine, an alternative strategy to capping is just cold calling to see if the MP1 will cap or not.

FLOP: Looks good, there is no point in building the pot right now, calling is the right play. The value of your hand is going to change dramatically with the turn card.

TURN: I see that your just trying to get to the showdown as cheaply as possible which is a reasonable strategy. But I think you actually have the perfect situation to raise the turn and heres some reasons why:

1) your hand is now much stronger given the turn blank.
2) It is clear now that you certainly have a better hand than MP1 and the CO IMO.
3) Three people have already committed a turn bet, which means a raise by you has tremendous value since you may get three people to call your turn raise, which is definitely +EV for your hand, and if any or all of them fold that is also obviously +EV for your hand.

4) This is the most important reason why raising the turn is correct, and if this reason is not in place then you should just call, and that is, the SB looks to me to be a very straight forward conservative player, meaning if he 3 bets you, you can trust that it will mean you have 2 outs or less and you can make an easy fold. The best situation you can have to raise the turn is when you know exactly how to handle a 3 bet, whether it be when you have the nuts, so you'll know you should cap it, or if you have a hand like yours against this very predictable opponent which will allow you to bow out gracefully if he 3 bets.

RIVER: Given that you just called the turn, and now everyone checks the river I think a bet looks right. It looks to me like the SB has either a broken nutflush draw or TT and hes worried his hand is no good, and I already think you have the other guys beat, And given this action nobody is going for a river checkraise which makes it that much more correct to bet. I wouldnt be surprised if you were called in two places by lesser hands.
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