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Old 12-03-2005, 08:00 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 87
Default Re: TT prays for a good turn card and gets...

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I don't think 50/60% is a modest edge but at the same time I don't think your edge is that great. Thinking back to Ed's SSHE example, he gave the tens 25% in a 5 way pot, while the aces were probably 50% or so. In this case, a 3, 7, 8, and A are all bad cards, and a K, Q, J, or 2 can be bad as well (to say nothing of the board cards pairing). That probably works out to half the deck or so weighted which sticks us at 25% right?

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That example is substantially different. There were 4 limpers plus the big blind (and hero). In this hand, we've got a raiser and two players who called a re-raise preflop. The flop in Ed Miller's hand has a flush draw, this one does not. The flop action in SSH was bet-raise-two coldcalls and then it's hero's turn to act. There are only two postflop aggressors in this hand, and I'm one of them. Because of these things, I expect my hand to be best more often and hold up more often.

You also can't weight equity in that way. It simply does not work (because equity calculations already include the flops that contain an ace, king, etc).
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