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Old 12-23-2005, 02:51 AM
maddog2030 maddog2030 is offline
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Default Re: Scuba_Curtains: AK hand 2

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But arent there other possibilities too...

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Yes, but there's so many of them it would make the analysis way too complicated. I tried to cover the major bases, and using what I felt to be somewhat conservative estimates (though this can be argued), I think that makes up for the missing cases.

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such as a flush draw with 2 overs ie 3h, 4h, 8o which is pretty much also a coinflip versus an overpair

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That's only good for QQ/JJ, so say you're splitting the big blind there with some FE tacked on depending on your opponent. AA/KK still has you beat.

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these could definitely have a lot of implied odds

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There isn't much implied odds. These stacks are only like 33BB. There's only a pot sized bet and a push left for these stacks postflop. If these stacks were deep, then I'd agree with an autocall preflop if villian is one who'd pay off.

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is capable of laying down an overpair to a hard c.r

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Not going to happen with such small stacks.

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also, since youll likely hit the flop 1 in 3 wouldnt u want to keep the pot small and close off the betting to a) stop a reraise which would force a fold to either QQ or KK which you might want to see that free card against b)disguise your hand or c) keep the chips out of pot that are -EV (ie those that were raised: u get 2x ur bet 1 in 3 times and 0x ur bet 2/3)

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Against this hand range, you would have to play this hand pretty passive/weak a majority of the time to keep the villian's hand range as wide as possible, which is crucial to extracting any value out of him because he's going to see your overcard, but you can't know how strong he is.
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