[Clarkmeister]

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The only justification for call/leading is if you think he'll raise the turn with an overpair, letting us 3-bet, but that doesn't seem to be part of the thought process here.

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The only reason I call/lead rather than 4-bet lead is because I think you're getting raised on the turn a lot more often with a call-lead. Should have made that more clear in my original post.

Rob

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But even then, I'm assuming this good hand reader is folding, right? So from the posted decision point on, we still only collect 2BBs vs a far more likely 2.5. Also, there will be times when we are getting 3-bet by the TAG when he/she has overs like AdKs and that 4th bet on the flop becomes pure gravy.

You'd have to be reasonably certain that they'd rarely 3-bet the flop with overs (I can't imagine that this qualifier is met), that they'll raise the turn when they don't (and lots of scare cards will stop this even if it is their intention), and that they'll pay you off when you 3-bet (I'm guessing this is less than half the time).

I don't see how that line is preferalbe to 4-betting now on what looks like a very drawy board and steaming it through. You may *still* get raised on the turn, or (if the site allows it) 5-bet on the flop. Get the money in now.