[amoeba]

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fold preflop.

2/3 of the time you don't flop anything and you have to fold to his flop bet, 1/3 the time you flop it but a portion of that 1/3 he has you dominated even when you flopped it.

think about how wide villain's range for limp reraising has to be to make the preflop call profitable.

hint : it has to be wider than AA-JJ, AK.

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Not if he'll call off his whole stack when you out flop him.

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this is very rarely the case and you don't outflop him and win at showdown very often.

I will do a rough calculation. 1/3 of the time we flop a pair. assuming his range is AA-JJ, AK. lets remove AK for the benefit of this discussion. due to you holding AK, its more likely for villain to hold QQ, JJ. we'll say 75% o the time he has QQ, JJ. as been rigorously analyzed in the Mason thread in MHNL, the times you flop a pair without him flopping a set is about 29%. the times you flop a pair and he doesn't set by the river is 26%. you take the 26% and multiply by the the 75% that he actually has QQ, JJ and you get roughly 19.5 %.

so 19.5% of the time you win his stack, 67% of the time you check fold the flop, and the rest you lose your stack.

preflop is a fold.