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Old 01-07-2005, 08:50 PM
jetsonsdogcanfly jetsonsdogcanfly is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 34
Default Re: PP 15/30 88, looking for opinions

First, the three bet with 88 is probably not a good idea your first orbit at the table. You're at best 50-50 against most raising hands, and you have no read. In that situation position is only gonna give you a cheaper coinflip, not the ability to outplay your isolated unknown opponent.

Second, bet the river, call a raise. He thinks your starting hand is JJ or better, especially after you three bet the turn. So his likely holdings are 22, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AJc or another club draw. He called three cold preflop, so i might not rule out QTc (although i wouldn't actually think about that during the hand). On the river JJ is the only hand that beats you (if you're worried about QTc, we have a problem). This suggests betting the river.

However, you also want to take into account the possibility that he will not be able to call. if you had a strong read in that direction, checking to induce a bluff might make sense.

The turn cap IMO means one of three things.
1. He is value betting. (AA, JJ, 22)
2. He was getting tricky, and raised with the intent of checking the river. (AJc, QQ, KK)
3. He was getting tricky with a semibluff, and raised with the intent of continuing aggression on the river. (clubs)

Given this, I'd go ahead and bet, then call a raise. He will rarely fold, and the number of imes you win, including when he bluff raises, far outweighs the times he has JJ.
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