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I'm assuming most people here read David Sklansky's article a few months back about going for it on 4th down. The basis of his whole article was that you can calculate your EP(expected points) from any field position, your opponents EP from that same spot in case you fail, and your expected 4th down conversion success rate, and then compute your best play from that. He of course offered the caveat that it doesn't apply in certain situations where you'd want to minimize your variance, but in general it is correct. Now i'm not saying this method of analyzing football decisions is correct just because he says it is, but I do think that carries a lot of weight.


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I didn't read this, but this idea is pure lunacy

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Okay, what the hell would you base it on? Your gut feeling?