[schwza]

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the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.

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You don't have to get all-in. Raise to 2500-3000.


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i guess what i should've said was that i didn't like the idea of getting ai for that much and i also didn't like the idea of folding to TT-QQ's reraise. on the plus side, based on the read, utg will likely fold and fishy utg will likely call. i still think calling is a little better though.

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The problem with the smooth call is that you create a situation in which players in LP may come over the top with marginal holdings. The initial push could easily be a steal of sorts (and a pretty good play if he's got any kind of hand), and it is possible because we've done nothing to force him to define his hand. Right now he's thinking "I've got t6000, there's a ton of money in the pot, and other than the original raiser, nobody's shown any strength. I'm pushing my 99." Re-raise, and it will keep you out of this situation. If he pushes over the top of a re-raise, and then THAT bet is called, you have a better idea where you stand.



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when you "make someone define their hand" you also define your own hand for them. one advantage of smooth-calling is that you might lure CO (or someone else) into pushing, which you would then turbo-call. it might be 99, but it also might be AJ.


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Another reason I don't like the smooth call is that with one other player already calling, you're quite possibly looking at even more players coming along thanks to pot odds. While it allows you to get away from a missed flop more cheaply, you essentially need to hit two-pair or beter to bet with much confidence. If the flop comes Axx, and there is a lot of action in front, how happy are you?



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pretty happy. my chips are going in there because the pot is humungous.

(obviously if there is a ton of action i might fold)

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And another poster said that folding here is okay, since you've only invested t800. No, no, no. It doesn't matter if you, the button, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster put those chips in the pot. Do you see why?



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i understand that what you're saying is obviously correct, but there's some element of truth. if there is 300 in the pot and you're the bb and the button pushes for 1k, you're getting better odds if there's a dead SB and you have to call 700 vs if the SB folded and you have to call 800.

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That said, I'm beginning to see the logic behind folding. I do smell a lot of dead outs in the folded hands. But, boy would I be unhappy to see 99 and JJ.

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from my previous post:

Ks Ac 499339 36.43 867148 63.26 4267 0.31 0.365
Qd Qh 626101 45.68 740386 54.01 4267 0.31 0.458
Td Th 241047 17.58 1125440 82.10 4267 0.31 0.177

there's 6240*3 + 800*2 + 300 in the main, so you have 7526 cEV in the main.

in the side, say you're 45% to win. i think this is generous because it's very likely that utg and utg+1 folded at least 1 A/K, but ignore that for now.

the side is (15228-6240)*2, so you have cEV 8089 in the side. total cEV is 15615, and you paid 15228-800 = 14428, so your fold costs you ~1.2k. throw in the fact that gambling is bad, hero is higher skill than avg, and utg and utg+1 probably folded a bunch of your outs, then you're really not going to be kicking yourself at all.

the times you really win out are when button has AQ, or when button folds and CO doesn't have AA. the only way this play is any good is if CO folds somewhat often, i think.