[bluefeet]

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I dump it for sure. No reason now, after having completed, c-called the flop, c-raised your now 3rd declaration of hand strength...to NOT put him on a made hand (2pair, baby set, heck maybe even TP w/ this K).

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ok, just making sure.

one reason to check the turn is that it helps you extract a bet on the river from a hand like 8x that would fold the turn. you also don't get c/r'ed off the hand by a strangely played 9x or draw. it's true that giving a free card to a possible draw sucks, but i think keeping the pot small and preventing yourself from getting blown off the hand is worth it.

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i understand the thinking, but the occasions when we get pushed off a hand, is generally when we indicate weakness. not when continuing to represent a hand. sure it happens, but one coming over top in this scenario is much more likely holding a real hand. this is why we have to continue on the turn.

if you don't continue...what do you do when he pushes this river?

we've reasoned that the turn card is very unlikely to help him. but you have a very vulnerable hand. one that could be overcome on the river. you have to charge him. it's not like we're holding AA, or a set, and we WANT him to lead the river for us. 'value checking' is rarely applicable with a hand of your modest strength. more so because of the draw friendly flop, and his interest in such.

the true value move is to lead again on this not-so-scary turn, charge him to chase the OESD, charge him for the 8. if anything you checking the turn could freeze him on the river (assuming you're doing this for 'value'). a rag flop, that likely didn't help a strong Ace PF raiser...he calls with a piece. now comes an over to the flop. all of a sudden you slowdown. granted a conscious observer might note that you should lead your now AK again vs. setting a trap, because of the draw. but many that shouldn't have proceeded this far won't 'bite' on the river regardless.

you basically spent 200 chips regardless. spending them on the turn will do two things for you. it will pick up the pot there when a piece gives up. it will provide the 'value' you want when he continues with a draw, or with the misguided understanding that he still might be ahead with his piece. he might also come over - most times with a hand that beats you.

by checking the turn, you don't gain anymore chips when he checks the river (because you are checking behind), you ONLY gain chips when he leads into you - AND - you still have the better hand. the same guy that will bluff into you (with his piece, or MISSED draw) is the same guy that will call your VALUE BET on the turn.

ps. if he DOES have the hand at the turn, you've lost 200chips. no more so than him having it at showdown when you call behind his river lead.