[DcifrThs]

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bet/fold?

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absolutely not. you cannot bet/fold here. period. if you do this you will have shots taken at you all the time, which is exactly what you dont want. if you bet you must call the raise. i think check calling is best because of the previous fact. if you check, he will bet any 8 and the 6. if you bet, he will call all 8s and raise any hand that now beats you and fold all worse hands.

lets do a little math though. lets say that combinatorically and stylistically its equally likely that he has an 8 or a 6. he will call with 8s and raise 6s if you bet. if youc heck he will bet both hands. i assume A8 would 3bet pf. K8 might just call so we'll leave it at that. i also assume K8 would probably raise the turn so the only 8s he has are lower ones. 6s, however, could have a larger range b/c he may not 3bet A6 and wouldn't necessarily raise K6 on the turn.

so in actuality, its slightly more likely imo that he has the 6 than the 8. but lets stick w/ 50/50 still.

situation 1: he has a 6 and you bet/call.

situation 2: he has an 8 and calls your bet.

situation 3: you check he bets the 8 and you win.

situation 4: you check and he bets the 6 and you lose.

so...

E[1+2]= -(2)*.5 + .5*1=-.5

E[3+4]= .5*1 - .5*1=0

given the above assumptions (you dont fold to the raise when you bet) it is never correct to bet. you can alter the probability that villian has an 8 to whatever as long as the probability he has a 6 is 1-Pr(villian has 8) or vice versa.

but if you can fold to the raise (and you are never wrong):

E[1+2]= .5*1-.5*1=0

E[3+4]= .5*1-.5*1=0

so it makes no difference if youc an fold to the raise. the results are always equal for bet/fold vs. check call. but if you can't fold to the raise, check calling is always better.

so even if you COULD fold to the raise, you need to be 100% sure you are beat when you fold every time to the raise and its still exactly even vs. check calling.

so check calling is clearly better given my above assumptions.

-Barron