[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
horrible.

When the CO donks into the pfr on that board he almost always has at least a pair like 99 or KJ or something. It is possible he has a smaller pp or something like A5 and this worked out for you but in general this is a stupid way to play the hand. Also not helping is the button, who at worst when he calls the turn has something like AQ which has a gazillion outs to improve so vs both of them you're in mucho trouble.

Fold the flop, since you didn't, fold the turn, calling is far better than raising and calling the river is moronic as well. check fold the river.

I'm sure you didn't play this hand cause you're much better than this, but this is a total fish way to play a hand from the flop on.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think we can pretty squarely put the button on an A high type gutter hand and I think we can pretty accurately put the CO on something weak most of the time. I'd expect him to checkraise better hands. it's hard for the CO to call, being squeezed in between a preflop 3-bettor and a turn check-raiser. getting it HU with the button in a pretty big pot would be a coup. it's definitely nowhere near as bad as you make it out to be. it's risky and it takes a pretty big investment so it has to work about 1 in 6 since he's getting about 9.5-2 when it works. he has 2 outs when behind and faces 10 outs when ahead and gets it hu

and you say AQ has a bunch of outs. ok, so he has about 30% equity. when it's his turn to act on the turn, the pot is 8.25 BB. so 30% isn't that much considering it's a big pot. also, he can pretty safely fold any A, Q, or J river so there are no reverse implied odds.

the flop i think i agree is a fold. he's getting 12-1 but with a bet and a 3-bet, i don't think we'll see 2 unpaired non-AK/KQ/KJ hands enough to prospectively peel there.

the river i think is a good check-call. what could he possibly be value betting? he didn't raise the flop, he didn't raise the turn, and now flawless has shown more strength than the CO, and he suddenly finds a value bet? if he had a set we would've heard from him by now. my only question is whether a bet is better than a check to induce a bluff.