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Old 04-12-2005, 08:48 PM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 570
Default Re: TT: Folded in the right spot?

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I'm just curious however, dont you think its just asking to get three bet by one of the two? I think its just too likely your far behind here already. Aren't you just throwing good money after bad trying to get a diamond to fold when your already beat here in most instances given the action?

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This flop is crap, though. 7-4-9 two-suited? With a capped preflop, it's entirely likely that nobody likes this much. With your raise, you're giving CO 15.4:2 odds, or 7.7:1 odds on a draw. We both know that a two-flush has odds to call here, but it would discourage the inside straight draws.

On a tangential note, I find that raises hold mystical power over low-limit tables. A player that will call one bet all day and all night suddenly slows down and thinks hard about folding to two. For some reason, two bets (even on the flop) just freak out low-limit passive players, and they tend to run for the hills with even decent hands. I guess that's the "monsters under the bed" syndrome at work. Anyways, I find raising pays great dividends over time.

I guess I'm overly optimistic, but I don't think the flop is that scary for Hero: he's got an overpair to a pretty safe board, considering the preflop action. The turn's a different story, and even from my optimistic point of view, I think it's time to say goodbye when CO bets.

As to the risk of getting three-bet: while that's a drawback, it is one with a strong silver lining. When CO makes it three, you've learned a great deal about where you actually stand in this hand, and it makes folding the turn even easier. Without knowing how strongly CO likes his hand, I might be tempted to continue with the hand if the turn isn't as scary as this one. Mind you, in this situation and in hindsight, the flop raise might have proven unneccessary, but a "safer" turn card might make it hard to escape this hand for one bet on the turn. I see it as spending small bets to save big bets. The 1 BB on the flop saves you 2.5 big bets on the flop (since CO still raises), turn, and river when the board doesn't look this ugly but you're still dogmeat.
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