[ethan]

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bet threebet works goot.

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It certainly does. Were the pot 20BB to start, or if I only had 80BB behind I don't think I'd have considered anything else.

I'm not sure he'll raise me if I lead pot. This guy's shown some aggression, but only with what was very likely a non-vulnerable clearly-best hand. I also haven't spent all that much time playing full-ring 200NL, but it's pretty tight-passive. I bet 2/3 pot hoping to get raised (I prefer getting raised to flat-called here*), and he obliges by raising...1/3pot or so. I have $255 when he raises - if I push and get called let's say I have 45% equity, which comes out to around $240-245. If I push and he folds, I end up at $300.

$300's pretty good, and showing down this hand (even if I lose) will get me action when I bet-3bet my sets vs anyone who was paying attention. But I'm wondering if I get more out of him by just calling here. If not, then how about with 200BB behind? Somewhere between 30-40% of the deck puts me ahead on the the turn, and his flop raise gives me pot odds without any implied odds to draw to the low end of that.

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EDIT: good posts. post here more often.

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Thank you. Much appreciated, particularly given what you've contributed to this forum. I'm glad to see from MHNL that you're moving up and doing well.

*Getting raised on this flop is better than getting flat-called because I want him to think he's still in control of the hand. If he just calls then I'm left in an awkward position on a blank turn - betting and getting raised sucks because he may not give me implied odds (although I can and might push), and betting and getting called isn't great either. Check-calling 2/3-to-full pot after betting the flop isn't great either, although I'm not sure he'd bet so much. A check-raise push is worth considering, but I think that if he bets enough to make my push less than a substantial overbet he's doing it with a hand that'll call and have me drawing to 14 outs (set or 2pr with J). A smaller check-raise will likely be bad - he may be able to destroy my odds when I have somewhere between 15 and 18 outs, and if not I'm stuck calling all-in which I don't enjoy. But, if I bet-call the flop...

...if I hit the turn, there's a very good chance I get in with by far the best of it. He has the initiative and a hand he wants to protect, and bet-calling the flop can be a great many non-flush-draw hands. I'm not willing to give him credit for competent pot-control, so a check-raise is an option. Ideally I get to bet-3bet a non-spade K.

Oh - and if I hit the turn and whiff the check-raise, I want to check-raise a blankish river. If I bet out he's not calling without an overpair/set, and he'll bet those for value if I check to him.