[DrGutshot]

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30/60 Party, 10 handed

2 folds and a loose player raises (60/9), the guy to his left 3-bets (33/14 but only after 40 hands, his postflop aggression factors are 2; 5; 4 for what that's worth), the next one cold call (30/15 again 40 hands), SB calls (23/13) and I call with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Good or bad?

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to the 3-bettor and he bets out, 2 calls and I call, PFR folds. Good or bad?

Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Same guy bets out again, preflop cold caller folds, SB calls and I call. Good or bad?

River: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

He bets out again, SB folds, I fold. Good or bad?

Thanks,

Guido

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good to see you posting again Guido (I haven't been posting much either lately...kind of sick of the whole 2+2 thing).

You played this hand fine. Preflop is marginal but you are getting about 7:1 and that is just good enough with your hand.

On the flop first I thought about check-raising, but now I realize it would be terrible - it wouldn't defend your hand in the slightest and you are opening yourself up to be raised on the turn by BOTH hands that beat you and stubborn big pairs that don't.

Then I thought maybe betting out would be best, but that would accomplish very little - all the better hands are raising you, TT and under are flat out folding, or flatcalling hoping to improve (and thereby you are not protecting your hand). The only real hand you beat that might raise is something like KQs or KK which is not often enough to warrant a bet.

I prefer a check because if he has a small pair, he may give up and just check, in which case a late position bettor may bet and you can raise to protect now. If miraculously you check he bets and the others fold, I think it would be time to go for a check-call check-call bet line, UNTIL the turn and river bring what they did.

On the turn, as you said, you are either against a small pair that is quite stubborn (that will check behind the river 95% of the time unimproved), or a hand that has you crushed aside from the gutshot. Betting out accomplishes nothing unless he has exactly JJ (extremely unlikely) or TT - as he will either fold right away with very few outs (hence it is not bad to give a free card here), or he will bluff raise you and you will just have to pay more or fold the best hand. Obviously he will raise all the hands that beat you as well.

On the river, you are done, you have nothing, fold. Good fold. This is a fold very few 2+2ers can make. THE ONLY HAND he could possibly have here that you beat is AT. He will NOT bet anything else with two seperate people calling him down. Maybe if it was heads up - he would give one last desperation bet - but not 3 handed.

By the way, his street-specific aggression factor is worthless over that many hands. Even his overall postflop aggression is almost worthless too. Small sample size.



-DrG