Re: Results and Follow-up
i just replied but this is a good opportunity to clarify:
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I'd imagine I just got lucky, my instincts just happened to coincide with the positive results.
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100% correct.
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As I said, I don't make these moves often, and certainly not into this large of a field. I can't say I'll do it again, but I can't say I won't. If the situation presents itself and I have the same "instinctive feeling" that it can be done, I'll likely take a stab. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Its one hand, risking 2BBs to win 15BB...has to work 1 out of 7.5 times.
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when YAK bet there were 13.5bbs there. make it 14.5bbs after he bets. you raise 2 to get 7.25bbs:1 or 1/8.25. you need to win it right there 12.12% of the time. each of the 8 callers needs to ONLY call 1.55% of the time (12.12/8). i dont like those odds.
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And of course I followed up with a river bet, what else am I going to do? Grab the pot and push it to the other guy to save the dealer time? Following through was a must.
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which you DID NOT factor into your initial raise thus increasing the cost of the move. effective odds are now even worse and the shared calling % actually moves down to near 1% for the 8 callers.
-Barron
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