[DcifrThs]

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NOTE on eric's method: given that they are unknown and given that this is the EXACT situation id face in a simulation infinite times then that triple is what id go with. NOW, if i was given that situation after the information of my previous actions are known, FCR{0,50,50} is very exploitable.



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This make absolutely no sense. Mixed strategies in poker are good because over the long run observant opponents can exploit pure strategies. Closing the action on the river in a simulation of this exact situation against two guys you don't know who don't know you, either calling or folding is better and any mixed strategy is strictly wrong (unless the situation is such that you are completely indifferent between calling and folding and every answer is right). This FCR triple thing has everyone talking out of their asses.

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granted that i dont understand fully the whole triple thing and all its exactitudes, this is what i thought.

i was imagining a monte carlo simulation type setting vs. in this spot. given my assumptions, and given that they dont remember the previous "draw" raising half the time and calling half the time on the turn is probably best (yields highest EV over long run i.e. 1million sims).

upon further reflection, some % of the time you will be drawing to 2 outs so folding should be in there and 50/50 call raise isn't correct. i dont think there is a clear dominant strategy here under those settings above.

NOW, moving to the setting you are talking about that is where the players will remember and will be playing optimally, then its much trickier b/c most strategies selected can be exploited.

i dont want to go through (and dont know if i even COULD do it correctly) all the calculations necessary to get the proper triple for this situation.

my WHOLE POINT though is that vs. unknowns, folding here i think is a loss.

Barron