Re: AA?
[ QUOTE ]
1 in 220 hands. Regardless of what you hold.
[/ QUOTE ]
This is not true. You cannot ignore known information. The easiest way to see this is to imagine that you hold AA yourself. Do you still think your opponent's odds have not changed?
However, to calculate the probability we need to assume that your opponent's hand is a random hand from the unseen cards in the deck -- and this assumption is false given his PF three bet, which limits his range of hands unless he's a total maniac. So the calculation is more of an exercise. Nonetheless....
There are 47 unseen cards in the deck. There are two aces left. So the chance that your oppo holds them is:
1/(47 choose 2) = 1 in 1081.
By the way, I don't think you played this poorly given an unknown opponent. An aggressive oppo might have played pocket eights this way, and a true LAG might even play pocket fours or sixes this way. Make a note, though, and next time keep playing back.
HTH,
gm
|