View Single Post
Old 12-31-2005, 01:44 AM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 412
Default Re: PStars 180..2 Overs/Flush Draw/Gut Shot..facing raise/rereaise on

You're playing for your stack on the flop. So it's either push or fold. If you push, you're risking t1560 to win t2190 so you're getting 1.4 to 1 odds. You need to have 40% equity for it to be a neutral decision. You're a 60/40 favorite against an overplayed AT. You're a 2 to 1 dog against a set even with 12 outs because of the full house redraw. I think there's a greater liklihood that you're up against a set than AT. And giving AT some possibility along with 88/77 and you're a 1.5 to 1 dog. Given that you're not even drawing to the nut flush and I don't think you're getting good enough odds.

Pre-flop, the raise is okay. Understand that it has more to do with driving out (hopefully) a couple of opponents and getting the betting impetus post flop then winning pre-flop. You're likely to get called and you're likely to miss the flop. So you have to plan on making a continuation bet on the flop to make raising pre-flop worthwhile.
Reply With Quote