[squiffy]

Sometimes insurance is too expensive. Puts only go out 2-3 years.

Greenspan made his irrational exuberance comment before congress in 1997. The market didn't crash until 2000 or 2001. About 3-4 years. It's hard to predict when a bubble will burst, even if you know it's a bubble. That's the nature of a bubble, it's irrational and prices can reach irrational and unpredictable heights for an unpredictable amount of time.

Later I will post some put prices and we can talk numbers. Do you actually have some experience with puts? Or are you just speaking theoretically.

If you have actually tried shorting or buying puts, you may find it's not necessarily cost effective. Cuts pretty heavily into your profits.

It's like the difference between home ins. or car insurance vs. flood insurance if you live in a flood zone.

Certain kinds of insurance are cheap because the risk can be spread effectively.

It's not clear to me that options are traded widely enough to make them a cost effective hedge. And you have to pick the right stock.

If you really are familiar with puts, and can talk specific numbers for specific companies, that's great.

If not, we just have to agree to disagree.

I own one home in CA that I bought in 2002 for 200K. Now appraised at 420K. I bought one home in TX in 1993 for 183K, now worth about 250K or so. Not really sure.

I have about 340K in Ameritrade accounts. Mostly in retirement accounts.

In theory what you are saying makes sense. I agree with it. In practice. It's hard to find the right stock and hard to put in place a cost effective hedge.

But I am happy to talk specifics if you have experience with puts and can post some specific prices for puts on specific stocks.

Adios are you out there? Do you agree now that homebuilders and mortgage lenders are starting to tank or will tank.
Which ones are most likely to drop precipitously?