[RedManPlus]

[ QUOTE ]

And yet, on page 245 of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", Malkiel makes the somewhat astonishing assertion that:

No one person or institution has yet to produce a long-term, consistent record of finding money-making, risk-adjusted individual stock-trading opportunities.

Which do you think is closer to the truth?

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Malkiel is exactly correct about "efficient markets".

Example of "efficient markets":

Large Cap Stocks
Liquid Commodities
All Index/Commodity Futures
Most Option Markets
Mutual Funds
Anything an Unsophisticated Person Would Think of Trading

** No one ** beats these markets long-term...
Without inside information...
Combined with "closeness" to the market...
And rock bottom transaction costs.

But people lie about their results all the time.
(This must be a big shock for poker players).
The hedge fund world is unregulated.
Books like "Market Wizards" are mostly hype.

I'm a professional trader and US broker-dealer..
And have both MW books...
And they were a waste of time and money.

But...
There are many "inefficient markets"...
Such as exotic warrants/convertibles/bonds...
Where a sophisticated "risk arbitrage" can be very profitable.

Please note the words...
"exotic", "sophisticated", "risk", and "very profitable".

Only very special people can do this...
Perhaps max 10% of hedge fund managers...
And precisely ZERO stock brokers...
Just like only a very specially talented person can be a top pro poker player.

rm+

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]