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Old 05-14-2005, 06:38 PM
DesertCat DesertCat is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
Posts: 224
Default Re: Reconciling \"Random Walk\" with \"Market Wizards\"

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Or undervalued investments are becoming harder to find as the markets become more efficient....

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I wonder about this myself. The counter proof is that Buffett is still outperforming the S&P 500 even with his $120B anchor. He does find legit undervalued investments.

I used to think that improving technology might narrow the underpricings but I changed my mind. It doesn't matter how quickly you can find low PE or low P/B stocks, if you don't follow the value investing philosophy. For the market to truly become more efficient, a higher percentage of the money being managed has to be managed intelligently, and I'm not sure I see any evidence of that.

The internet boom is a great counter example as well. There were "momentum investors" (i.e. gamblers) who attracted tons of money when the market went up. And they will again the next time we have a great bull market. It doesn't seem anyone learns any lessons. CNBC isn't helping anyone become better investors, on the contrary it's akin to a "pump and dump" PR service.

But for Buffett to really shine in the future he needs a market crash, like the seventies. He's stuck sitting on his hands right now.

I on the other hand, am a micro investor and I invest in areas where few professionals care to look, so I have no trouble beating the indexes. But I wish I had Buffett's problem.
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