No one has a better than 50% record predicting the market in the long run? What does that mean? The market usually goes up so anyone who bets up is right more than 50% of the time. Know what you're talking about before posting.

As for focusing on the companies you buy...if you don't have a source of information the market hasn't already factored in, everything you do is worthless and basically a crapshoot. Buy an index fund or at least mimic it with individual stocks. At least there is less volatility there.