Re: AA
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I'm not sure where these numbers are coming from and what assumptions you are making.
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3 ways for KK, 1 way for AA. Dave is now telling me that my range is too narrow but I was going off of a "too passive" read which, to me, even in hyperlag games would mean no AQ preflop/flop and no JJ flop. So I weighted those, check-calling earns 7.5BB against AA as a chop, and figured how many times she'd have to bet AA (40%) that she has it. 40% x 1 x 7.5 = 3, which is the same as the 3 ways she can have KK and bet them on the river. Either way given the description and that scenario I didn't like a river bet, since it's going to take a lot for a river bet to approach 0EV given the assumptions made.
If the assumptions made are wrong, I was going off of the read provided and trying to extrapolate from there. I'm headed to the gym but will post more later if necessary.
Rob
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