[applejuicekid]

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OK...according to ICM

if you fold = .4402
if you call and win = .624
if you call and lose = .1832

so,

.4402 = (.624)(x) + (1-x)(.18332)
x = 0.583

AK doesn't do this well against villains hand does it?

In reality I think I would fold, and I think ICM agrees with this.

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For fold I get 0.4434, for call/win 0.6265, for call/lose 0.1917. Are you sure you're using 0.65/0.35/0 ?

By the way it's a call if he's pushing 44+,A9o,A7s+,KQs. Which I think's a bit too wide here for you to call.

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Hmmmm....yeah I did do .65/.35/0 let me recheck my numbers maybe I got the stack sizes wrong.

I used:

folds: 3985, 780, 4235
call + win: 8220, 780
call + lose: 650, 780, 7570

Maybe this is where my problem is?