Re: JJ turned set and donked
If he does not have the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and folds to a raise, that's fine by me. That is better than letting him draw out on us with something like the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (or worse). If he does have the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (or worse), then we charge him to draw when we are ahead. It's not a certainty for him to bet the river again if we call him on the turn and he misses on the river and will likely fold to our bet if he missed. If that happens, we miss a bet.
Even though it's heads-up, a lesser flush may not 3-bet the turn if we raise here. There are preflop raising hands that could have it beat (e.g., A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), so it's not an automatic 3-bet for the typical player. If you bet a non-nut flush into a 3-flush board and get raised, you have to believe that there is a reasonable chance that you are up against the nut flush and should slow down.
My main point is that there are a lot of hands that we are ahead of and that the typical player will c/r if they have a flush. It's also possible that the BB has now made 2 pair (KJ). It's also possible that he has a smaller set of 6s or 8s and was planning on c/r the turn until the third club came and is trying to use it as a scare card and to see where he is with those hands. I do see that play quite a bit.
There are a lot of hands that you are ahead of here. And you have 10 outs to improve, if needed.
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