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Old 09-02-2005, 12:30 PM
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Default Re: Ditch this draw or play?

I am fairly new to this forum. A good portion of my experience is in tourney play. That does not make me a master, but it has given me some insights.

The responses here are interesting. Our hero has a mere 30 chips in the pot, it is still early in the tourney, and it looks to me like a push is being suggested as the best choice, all based on the estimate that the preflop min raiser is holding a PP.

What if one of those PP cards is an A or a K of spades? What if it is AK of spades? MAYBE he is just trying to push you out of the pot now with a bet that size because he flopped a set. If that is the case, why, so early in the tourney, would you be willing to risk everything on what might not even be the nuts if you DO make your hand? I mean, I get the go big or go home theory, but really, if he has a single spade higher than yours, he has a chance at outdrawing and nullifying your flush draw...

Or maybe he is just a weak player who underbet with his original raise, and overbet the pot on the flop with nothing but AKo (neither a spade) and he is just hoping to steal, because, as mentioned earlier, he may have read somewhere that you are supposed to bet when you raise preflop...

The problem is, you can't know any of the above if you have never played this villain before, and especially if it is this early in the tourney, you may not have even seen him play any other hands yet. If you HAVE, has he been aggressive, or weak or ... ?

He may be strong, and just betting the pot on a flush draw as well, but this comes back to our hero drawing to a dead flush, and the straight being the only thing he has to draw to, assuming the villain doesn't also make a higher straight.

Again, I ask you, with those two cards, why are you willing to risk your entire stack for only having invested 30 chips to see the flop, especially this early in the tourney? Why not wait for a better opportunity to go to war? Yes, you have a good flop, but there are some preflop raising hands that leave you drawing dead...

In a cash game, I don't think I would have a problem moving all-in with this scenario, or at least re-raising with the hope of getting a free card on the turn (the choice of which of the above would depend on my read of my opponent), but in a tourney, when I can't just reach into my pocket for more chips, I would hesitate to even call here.

So we come back to the beginning. I would either move all-in or fold, and that would depend on whether or not I was in a serious gambling mood and whether or not I felt my opponent would call. If he was just weak and/or trying to steal the pot, he will fold anyway. If he is strong, he may fold just because he is smart and think he is already beaten because you flopped a straight. Another question then is, assuming our villain IS a strong player, what image does he have of you? Will he think you are bluffing or does he see you as straightforward? If he sees you as straightforward, he may not be willing to risk all his chips even if he knows you are on a flush/straight draw, especially if he only has QQ in the hole. Then he would know that you have a good chance of beating him...

Gotta love poker and the choices we get to make in hold em!

edit:

one more thing to consider ... what if you DO just flat call the 200 and someone behind you pushes ? are you prepared to move all-in ? I think I would be at that point, based on the assumption that they are likely trying to steal with a bluff and you probably have a better hand than they do - BUT I often limp in with AK and I am sure I am not the only player who does that, so you need to decide, do ya feel lucky? well, do ya, punk? er... sorry - You need to decide before calling a 200 chip bet in this situation as to whether or not you are prepared to call an all-in if anyone else acting after you goes all in - if you are not prepared to call a move like that, you might as well fold right now or risk kissing 200 chips goodbye. On the other other other hand, IF you flat call the 200 and both (or even either) of the two callers behind you push, you MIGHT get lucky and triple up if the original raiser goes all in...

Yes, you could be drawing to the best flush/straight, but then again, I might try to keep my answer as vague as possible, because, "it depends"...
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