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Noah,

Here is what will happen...maybe not 99%, but definitely most of the time you bet 2500 with one pair (no matter what pair that is) on this board given Deeb's PF range:

Freddie Deeb calls, or makes it 3x your bet.

Now what?

If you call his CR, how comfortable do you feel on 25-ish turn cards when he either bets 10K of his 22K or pushes into a 15K pot?

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I agree with you that this is a tough spot. I disagree that we get into it 99% of the time. I think we've both oversimplified the situation.

You may be right though... I'm not giving enough weight to the very slim range Deeb can put us on.