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Are you suggesting that this is too weak?
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A good player can fold the best hand sometimes without making the JTs 3-bet +EV. The key is not to fold too many better hands.
There are no easy answers here because being a good heads up player is not easy.
A guideline I use when analyzing is to consider how I would play my entire range of hands in a given situation. In particular I think about what percentage of the time I will be folding. Then I ask myself if I'm happy with that considering the pot odds and the chance that I started with the best hand.
For example I post a
hand a couple of days ago where I folded AQ unimproved on the turn after being raised on the flop. I've thought some more about that hand. If I'm folding AQ (nut no pair) it logically follows that I must be folding all of my worse hands too. That means I am folding 41% of my preflop range if Villain decides to bluff raise the flop and bet the turn.
This is a very disturbing number because it looks like folding AQ may be exploitable error in the sense that it is profitable for him to risk 2 BB by autobluffing any worthless hand.
Now if his PFR range was AA, KK, QQ, Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] then he would very rarely have a bluffing hand. It would be correct for him to autobluff the Granny but it would be equally correct for me to let him have it due to terrible pot odds. But Villain's actual range is enormous and my big unimproved aces are very often the best hand. I certainly have fine pot odds to call AQ against an autobluffer.
Another factor is that I will often pair my hand or pick up a gutshot on the turn that will allow me to see the river. If I make it a rule to showdown any big ace that turns a gutshot then it cuts down on his bluff odds a lot.
Overall my conclusion is that my turn fold of AQ is pretty marginal from a theoretical perspective. Probably I'm folding a few too many hands against an opponent who plays correctly. If I believe that conclusion then the cure is to start calling a few more hands and obviously I want those to be the best available, meaning I should call down with AQ and fold with AJ or worse.
Of course my opponent is not a theory. He's a real player and I have a read. What is right in theory needs to be adjusted for the way Villain actually likes to play. But I am making my adjustments from the correct starting point.
Having played and analyzed more hands against Villain I now realize that I probably made a bad fold. The revised read is that he bets very aggressively to steal pots but often misses value bets with weak pairs. In other words if he actually had A6 (bottom pair) for his PFR I might be getting a free card here. Accordingly he is bluffing too much compared to his value betting and I should be calling more hands than theory requires, not less hands.