[Niediam]

I would have bet the flop but that wasn't an option. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Anyhow, I don't fold here... am I wrong?


Limit Poker, Blinds $5/10
You are dealt 8c6c in the big blind. Two middle position players call the bet, everyone else folds to you. You decide to call. The flop comes Kh9h7d. You check, your first opponent bets $10, the second opponent raises to $20. There is $65 in the pot. What do you do?

(a) raise
(b) call
(c) fold

Answer: (c) fold. There are plenty of hands that your opponents might be betting bet with here, and pretty much all of them have you beat. Your only real hope is straight draw. Assuming your eight straight outs are good, the "rule of four" tells you you’ve got about a 32% chance of making your hand by the river, about one chance in three, or 2-to-1 odds against. The pot is offering you $85/$20, or a little better than 4-to-1 on your call.

So why not call? Two reasons:

(1) Not all of your outs may be good. The 10h and 5h might make a flush for an opponent. With only six "clean" outs, the rule of four gives you only a 24% chance, or 3-to-1 against. Still decent odds, except that….
(2) Your opponents probably aren’t done betting yet. What if the opening bettor comes back with a re-raise? What if there are a bet and a raise on the turn? Can you call? Suddenly, your odds don’t look so good.

Chasing speculative hands, especially when you’re out of position, is a good way to diminish your bankroll.