Re: Why is 10,000 hands too small?
Thank you for comments Paul.
Alright, I suppose that raises some other things.
If 15-20BB is in fact a reasonable estimate of the Standard Deviation after 100 hands, then the SD per hand should be 1.5-2BB per hand.
After 10,000 hands, our sample mean should be a Normal Distribution centered on the actual BB/hand and a SD of 0.015-0.020 BB/hand.
Since the sample mean is normally distributed, a standard t-test can be used to determine signifigance. If we test the Null Hypothesis that our win rate is negative, we need only to average 0.03 BB/hand to consider our win rate significant. Applying the same reasoning to BB/100 hands, a win rate greater than 0.3BB/100 over 10,000 would be considered significant at the 5% level. If we really want to push it and require a 0.1% signifigance, then we need to average 0.61BB/100.
If this reasoning is correct (a speculative venture on a good day), then it would seem to me 10,000 hands would be fairly conclusive for many win or loss rates.
|