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Old 12-29-2005, 11:45 AM
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Difficult Turn Decision

Any tells on MP1s plaiying style? Let's assume "no."

Your buddy, just from his betting pattern here, seems like a guy who is in control of his game and who has some conception of pot odds, value betting, etc. From the pattern, looks like he was on a mega draw and was raising just a bit to: a. check you out; and, b. to build the pot to a reasonable size without costing him too much $$ in the process. He accomplishes both of his goals. Your raise to "137," to me, is just as much an announcement of a big hand as a raise to 250. You're not giving him GREAT odds for a call on the flush draw. But, if I had a mega draw and, considering the possible implied odds, I'm gladly calling here. Most importantly, since you are out of position, you aren't exactly making things easy for yourself on the turn if a scare card arrives on this already reasonably scare board. You really should try to take this one down now or really charge him for his draw. Put that raise up to 250 - 275.

You're not in horrible shape on the turn, of course. My best line is to start yelling out expletives at the computer and then pop in Tiger Woods Golf '05. But, that's just me. I think YOUR best line is to check and hope your opponent gives you decent odds to a full house draw. Otherwise, fold. Am I about to get yelled at here? I don't see many hands you are ahead of given this action. If your opponent is smart, any value bet here is just going to bet pummeled by an all-in. If you bet out 300 or so, then MAYBE your opponent folds, but I just doubt it. He might call, but if he does, you haven't given yourself good odds on the river. I say check and hope you get some good odds from a nitty player.
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