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Old 12-28-2005, 03:27 PM
BluffTHIS! BluffTHIS! is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 375
Default Re: Middle set 9s vs. turn 3-str8 and flush draw

What is your general plan when you bet a set on the flop and get called in one or more spots indicating only draws ususally, and a draw gets there on the turn, especially when your hand has no flush draw to go with a draw to fill when the straight comes on the turn? The plain fact is, and more so out of position, you are just going to have to check/fold.

While in the example given it is true that you don't know exactly whether the straight card helped him since there is also a flush draw present, the way you described his play indicates that he isn't usually just going to be calling with an 8 out draw for 2-1 on his money if he thinks you won't pay him off.

But oh wait! You did pay him off and in advance, although the river helped you and you might have actually won unless he had TT plus a draw that hit on the turn (my guess). The only virtue of betting the pot on the turn is that you avoid being bluffed by a different draw and will have the odds to call off the rest of your stack if raised. Which is OK sometimes against habitual bluff raisers but not against TAGs.

One of the facts of big bet is that being out of position sucks and you are sometimes going to have to allow yourself to be bluffed off the best hand when a scare card gets there, in order to win on those situations in the long run. And in order not to be taken advantage of by aggressive players behind you, you need to bet excellent draws as well as sets, and occasionally check that set that is still the nuts or the draw that gets there on the turn, and checkraise those players. This will help balance your strategy and not make yourself so exploitable.
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