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The river is a very good time for a value bluff if you're called on the turn.

Rob

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UTG is 40/14/1.2

no its not.

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Are you even trying to put this guy on a range of hands?

Rob

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77, 88, 99, TT are not folding if they call the turn. a worse ace will fold. So he folds AQ and AJ, and doesn't call with anything we can beat. "value bluff" in this hand is bs.

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The question is whether or not you realistically think he can have 77-TT here and whether or not they outweigh the potential of a hand like AQ or AJ folding or a hand like AT or A9 calling.

A 40/14/1.2 is not a passive player. While they might slow down with 77 (which is not a super likely candidate for a raise UTG from them), they will usually push harder with 99 or TT. Sometimes they are calling intending to raise the turn and they get scared -- I understand that. But when I've played in this game, I've been 3-bet by various overpairs much more often than I've been called down by them after the flop.

If you tell me you're 100% positive he calls with AJ and AQ, folds A9 and AT, and (obviously) calls with 77-TT, then yes, this is a simple check-fold. But it isn't that simple. When you weight combinations and hands and the potential value of bluffing out better hands and chops given the size of the pot, then include the possibility (again, slim but not nonexistent) of worse hands calling, you can come up with some sort of basic idea. I've done this once before in a situation where you should be betting AK UI on the river against a PFR on a raggy board, and while the situation is certainly different now, it's still something that you need to approach from all angles.

Rob