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I think he's talking about those who died from combat-related injuries, not those who died in accidents. Just a guess.
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This sounds right, though it would make his statement incorrect.
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His early statement is not just American troops, but Iraqis too, and it's probably way on the low side.
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According to this site, he's actually on the high side.
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Good link, but his number is more consistent with the lower figure they give, because that just lists civilian casualties, while Bush was giving an estimate for the total number of persons killed altogether. (Which is not a criticism of his figure, just a comment on your comment.)