Thread: 44
View Single Post
  #3  
Old 07-30-2005, 09:47 PM
dave44 dave44 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 4
Default Re: 44

Not a big fan of the flop call either. Plenty of higher clubs are perfectly legitimate holdings for your opponents

A 4th club will hit 9/47 of the time on the next card and you're getting 9.5:1 so you need to be good 47/(9*9.5) or 54.9%.

Just looking at your opponents cards as completely random, the odds none of their 4 cards is a better club is (40/47)^4 or 52.4%.

Now factor in implied and reverse implied odds, which work against you here since the 4th flush card is scary for anyone without a flush and you'll certainly lose bets when someone has a higher flush along with the fact that both players have shown a willingness to continue in the pot, and I think your call is -EV.

Consider also that the most likely hand for the limp-reraiser would be AA which has a decent redraw on you.
Reply With Quote