Playing AKos on the Flop
I am having trouble finding the best play in certain situations, against the good players I compete with live in my area. We have several games, all week long, ranging from 10/20 to 20/40. The majority of the players are tough, and since you see them often, even though there is about 50 who play in the various games, we know each others play fairly well.
AK is a supreme starting hand, however, there are many instances after the Flop, where I find myself struggling with a decision. Take the following for example:
MP limps with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I raise on the Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. The BB calls with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] AK's hand has 42.48% pot equity preflop, however, the Flop comes Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
AK retains 36.54% pot equity, due to the overcards and backdoor straight and flush draws and has 6 outs to his overcards. Even if AK discounts his outs to 5, he has sufficient implied odds to call.
The problem that is created in this scenario, is that when AK just calls, he gives away his hand, i.e., he raised pre-flop and now just calls MP's bet on the Flop. MP now knows that he has either AK or AJ. 65 has less than 7% pot equity and even if AK raises on the Flop, 65's equity goes to QJ and AK's equity is decreased by 1.5%.
You now see the dilemma: If AK makes the proper play, i.e., call, he gives away his hand, and against the tough players I'm up against, if an A or K comes on the Turn, they are going to bet out and fold when I raise, calling only enough to minimize my attempts at stealing.
Can I disguise my holding by just calling with KQ, AA, two pair, or a set in this situation? Yes, I would have raised pre-flop with TT or 88, but I would not have raised with QT or T8 suited. Furthermore, can a set of Ts or 8s really afford to just call the Flop with the board so coordinated?
Your input would be greatly appreciated.
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