Re: Push?
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99 is better than AK HU, which this pot surely will be if you play it reasonably. And it's much better than 22. The "22" point, which I'm quite aware of, is that 22 is a slight favorite over most hands, a large favorite over none, and a big dog to some. First, that's not true for 99. Second, you are STILL MISSING THE MAIN POINT HERE, which is that your bet forces almost ALL hands to fold. 99 isn't any more of a favorite over JT or KJ than AK, but the only non-big pair hand that will call you if you push here is AK, so that's the only one I mentioned. Try running the numbers this way: pick a range of hands that UTG could have min raised with (if you only pick KK and AA then you're crazy). Then decide what % of those would fold to an all-in re-raise. The answer is almost all of them. Calculate the EV from that play. THEN subtract the neg. EV for those times when you're called and lose. Doing that shows that if you're called by AK (or anything other than AA-TT) you're ahead. If you're called by a bigger pair you're behind. I guarantee that if you run the numbers assuming a reasonable range of hands that UTG would min-raise with, pushing all in is a significantly +EV play. Now, I'm not sure it's the most +EV play, but I'm confident that it is +EV.
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I still insist you are wrong. Especially when you say "your bet forces almost ALL hands to fold. 99 isn't any more of a favorite over JT or KJ than AK, but the only non-big pair hand that will call you if you push here is AK" - this does not make much sense, in the situation you describe. I'm sorry.
Look at this that way: In order for you to show that it is +EV, you'll have to list a range of hands, with which UTG will mini-raise, but *fold* to a push. You are big-stack, and you said you played very aggressively. He knows it too, of course, and you say he's weak-tight. Frankly, I can hardly think of any hand he'll *mini-raise* and fold. Give me a reasonable list, that is with accordance w/ all the information we have, so EV could be calculated, than we can talk.
PrayingMantis
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