Re: Push?
Sorry Mantis, you're just plain wrong here.
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I think this is your mistake. I would gladly push here with AK. Saying that 99 is better HU than AK is the same common mistake as saying 22 is better that AK HU. This is a wrong way too look at it, and I suggest you'll check some very good threads on this in the multi-forum. The EV evaluation of a specific hand against another (like 22 vs. AK) is a misleading concept when you have to make decisions like yours here.
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99 is better than AK HU, which this pot surely will be if you play it reasonably. And it's much better than 22. The "22" point, which I'm quite aware of, is that 22 is a slight favorite over most hands, a large favorite over none, and a big dog to some. First, that's not true for 99. Second, you are STILL MISSING THE MAIN POINT HERE, which is that your bet forces almost ALL hands to fold. 99 isn't any more of a favorite over JT or KJ than AK, but the only non-big pair hand that will call you if you push here is AK, so that's the only one I mentioned. Try running the numbers this way: pick a range of hands that UTG could have min raised with (if you only pick KK and AA then you're crazy). Then decide what % of those would fold to an all-in re-raise. The answer is almost all of them. Calculate the EV from that play. THEN subtract the neg. EV for those times when you're called and lose. Doing that shows that if you're called by AK (or anything other than AA-TT) you're ahead. If you're called by a bigger pair you're behind. I guarantee that if you run the numbers assuming a reasonable range of hands that UTG would min-raise with, pushing all in is a significantly +EV play. Now, I'm not sure it's the most +EV play, but I'm confident that it is +EV.
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The question is always: what is the range of hands you are standing against. With your 99, as I said, you are AT BEST a 50-50 here. However, AK here gives you a huge advantage over a nice range of hands, and that's why it is much much better than 99 in this specific spot.
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I've already answered this but you're wrong again. One question is what range of hands you're standing against, but that's not the most important question. The most important question is what hands will he call you with given each size of raise you're considering, and what happens on later streets if you don't go all in.
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