Re: Turn Raise
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Some thoughts as I thought about the hand afterwards.
1. I play a big hand the same way. Villain probably wouldn't notice or care though.
2. I think villain is more likely to have a pair here than a draw. With the rag that fell on the turn, I think the chances of him folding an 8, 9 or some small pp are slim to none.
3. I open myself up for a 3 bet, which would suck something terrible.
4. The only out that I have that would slow him down is an ace. I can probably make 3 bbs if I just wait and will only lose 1 if I just call and can fold to a river bet.
5. Now, I'm face with a series of interesting decisions on the river. Do I bet any card? Do I call a donk? Etc.
Honestly, I'm thinking the turn raise may not be a good thing at all.
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I agree with your reasons here and come to the same conclusion that raising the turn isn't that good. The key point here is 1 combined with 2. It's very unlikely that he'll every fold here. If it was the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then I might like it more because he may be able to fold a pair. Or, if the villain was able to c/r the flop as bluff/semi-bluff sometimes as well as be able to lay down on the turn, then I would like it more. In this case, I don't like it.
As it went, I don't think I'd bet the river without improvement. I know that's probably the only way you're going to win the pot, but I think he has a better hand that he calls with too often to make a river bet +EV.
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