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Old 12-07-2005, 02:54 PM
MaxPower MaxPower is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
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Default Re: Are Winrates Normally Distributed?

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It looks pretty close to normal here, but I think the way you did the sampling is not quite right.

You need to draw random samples from the total group of hands. Chopping them up into blocks is easier, but not appropriate. The way you have done it, we might find a different results using a different database.

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i could easily randomize it

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You can easily randomize the order of the hands in your database, but that is not what I was suggesting.

You need to randomly select X number of hands and compute the win rate for that sample. Then you need to do it over and over and over again, each time selecting X number of hands from the total set of hands. Then you plot the win rates for each of those samples.

I don't know of any easy way to do that in Excel. It could be done in some statistical packages, but a data set of that size is too big for a desktop computer, it would need to be run off of a server or a mainframe computer.

There is type of statistics called Bootstrapping which does not rely on the assumption of normality. I assume there is some bootstrapping software that does this kind of thing, but I don't know enough about it.
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