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Old 12-08-2005, 09:32 PM
Spicymoose Spicymoose is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 146
Default Re: why am i always in these spots?

I had to read that action I think 8 times, and I am still not exactly sure what happend. There is no way I would be able to follow all that action as it was happening, so in the heat of it, I would have to call getting 15:1, and hoping that someone is a huge idiot. If it was capped back to me, I woul have to fold though.

Looking at it a bit more rationally (if I can even do that), I would say that BB really looks like he has JTs. He will often call preflop, then he has to call on the flop with his gutshot becuase of pot size. On the turn he picks up a double gutter, so has to call some more. It looks odd for him to be calling 3 bets cold on the turn, and I think that has to be JT. On the river, he hits, and pounds! BB could also have QQ, and just be too stupid to cap preflop. Then he needs to peel a bunch for the same reason as SB...

...On top of BB, who almost certainly has JT, it looks like SB has 88. He called preflop, and then on the flop, pot was big, so he called the first bet to try and hit trips. When it comes back for two more, pot is even bigger, and he call again. When he hits, he goes for good old trusty check raise.

Then we still have the button to deal with. It would look like KK, except that he only called the 3-bet on the turn instead of capping, last to act. I guess he could have just been frightened by all that action, and seeming coordination of the board, or just spazzed out for some reason. More likely looks like AA. A hugely overdone AK could be possible, but not all that likely.

In summary, I the most likely holdings of BB crush you. SB probably has you beat as well. Luckily, you may get 3rd place, but even then, button could be stupid with his KK.

Pot is huge, but there are so many reasons to fold.
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