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AA is 6 combos, KK is 1 combo, QQ is 3 combos, given that 2 kings and 1 queen are accounted for. We can discount KK because it inevitably 3bets the turn, and AA must be discounted b/c it will often 3bet the turn too because your hand is quite transparently a pair kings. If AA is discounted 50% then we're breakeven. Throw in some non-zero probability of JJ-TT and we've got ourselves a value bet IMO.

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50%s too heavy with the flop raise.