Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?
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I cant resist, After a little thinking I think I have come to a conclusion about which line is better between, raising the turn and betting the river, or raising the turn and checking the river.
If I raised this turn and the UTG player called, I would check the river if i dont improve. Given the way the UTG player has played his hand preflop+flop he is verly likely to have a big over pair AA,KK,QQ. Since he just called the turn he cant have KK, so his most likely holdings are AA and QQ. Given that the hero is a 2-1 underdog against this range, I would check the river, now if you add in other hands like JJ or TT it would swing the river to a bet, but with no information on the villain, I would stick to my QQ-AA read and check the river.
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AA is 6 combos, KK is 1 combo, QQ is 3 combos, given that 2 kings and 1 queen are accounted for. We can discount KK because it inevitably 3bets the turn, and AA must be discounted b/c it will often 3bet the turn too because your hand is quite transparently a pair kings. If AA is discounted 50% then we're breakeven. Throw in some non-zero probability of JJ-TT and we've got ourselves a value bet IMO.
Surf
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