[Spicymoose]

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This is in the shorthanded section of HPFAP. If the BB fold to your raise x% (I really should know this) of the time it is immediatly profitable to raise every hand.

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i had a dinner with a bunch of guys, and stox was among them. he said with a fold bb to steal >50 he will raise any 2 from the sb. i found that interesting. i am typically tihgt from the sb

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untrue. my bottom 90% of hands I will always raise. top 10% balanced between raising and completing.

It's mathematically impossible for it to be incorrect to NOT raise your worst hand (23o) from the SB first in if you KNOW BB will fold greater than 50% of the time. I dont see what is so hard here. Maybe you are saying someone will defend more liberally vs a SB steal than a button steal?

Give me 23o in the SB first in vs a 51% folder with no memory a million times in a row please (1:2 and 2:3 structure only).

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Your example is somewhat true, but not really since you're going to have to play postflop and you'll be out of position, so you need to go a little deeper into the math than >50%=raise.

Either way though, if you're basing that decision on the "folded BB to steal" stat that is definitely wrong. I fold my BB to a steal >50% but it's probably only like 10% or 15% when it's a steal from the SB. I would guess that's not what you meant, I just thought I'd mention it since Josh made it sound that way.

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If he is not reraising ever, having a fold to steal >50% will be enough for instant profit, so it does not matter that we are out of position on postflop, as we can decide to fold every single time if we end up playing, and we will still profit. Obviously, since we can play profitably on some flops, our outlook is even better.

You are right that "folded BB to steal" is not a good stat to use, and "folded BB to a SB steal" is better. But another key thing to factor in is how often he reraises preflop. Without knowing that, you cannot do the math.