[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
x=% of time you call and win

Total chips = 6,150,000
Total prize money playing for = $1M ($250k already wrapped up for each)

Fold = 825k
825k/6150k = 13.4% * $1M = $134,146

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't quite understand this -- aren't you overlooking second place money?

With a stack of 825k, we'd have a 13.4% chance at first plus an 82% chance (approx.) at second, with let's say a 4.6% chance at third. So our equity on folding is not $134,146 but $555,500.

(13.4% x $1M) + (82% x $500K) + (4.6% x 250K) = $555,500.

[ QUOTE ]
Call and win = 2,015,000
2015000/6150000 = 32.8% * $1M = $327,642

[/ QUOTE ]
Should be more like $658,500.

(32.8% x $1M) + (65% x $500K) + (2.2% x 250K) = $658,500.

So that agrees with Fiskebent's post: because of the prize-payout schedule and the very short third stack, the value of your stack increases by only 18% if you double up.