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Old 06-12-2002, 03:50 PM
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Default Re: secular bear market?msft



Problem with MSFT is they are in for a whole lot of growth problems. They are so big right now and mature in most areas. They can't be thought of as a tech company with its attendant growth prospects. As someone pointed out awhile ago, if MSFT were to grow 15% a year, they would be about 25% of the economy by the end of the decade. That certainly isn't going to happen. Add in their limitations due to all the anti-trust issues, not just those brought up but those in the future, and you can see its basically joining the GM and GE class, just a different business. Only way MSFT could really get growing is if they went a la AOL and bought up media companies, but I don't think that will pass regulator muster beyond one medium sized deal. Just think of them like the Magellan mutual fund. They have gotten so big that they need to take major stakes in any investment to make it meaningful, but regulators are going to prevent that. So they will just have to sit on their wads of cash and become a 5% growth company at best. Tough to call that a great investment, but by no means would I put them in the class of CSCO, a company that is in only a few limited markets where new technology is always competing to kill off their dominant share. Problem for CSCO is any new products they bring to market almost inevitably kill off the value of their old products. MSFT expands in ways where it adds customers and complementary products, not just improvements on what they did before.
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