I am a tremendous believer in the variables of defense, special teams and turnover ability as determinants of success. The Bears, when healthy, rate quite well in all of these. The cake schedule helps quite a bit as well.

Of course, if you believe the Bears' D will get banged up again and the offense, on its own and separate of special teams and defensive scores, will only be able to manage 7-10 points/game, then the under is a good bet.