Re: Gold
Why can't I use judgement? You seem to claim that its because most people's judgement is wrong. However, your method of following trends essentially just follows the net judgement of the whole market.
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0. The stock is already trending higher.
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Fwiw, this is also the case every time a stock decreases from a price it will never reach again. I'm not saying that's the case here, but "it went up so its going to go up more" doesn't make any sense.
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1. A close above 50 is great because most losing players who paid 48 or more (previously, in 01/04 and 11/04) have sold, leaving only players who likely hold for much higher prices. This reduces selling pressure and tends to increase price. All the miserable people are gone.
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You picked 48 as an arbitrary number. If you replace it with 52 it "proves" (used in the loosest of terms) the opposite case and makes just as much (or little) sense.
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2. A close sufficiently below 50 (3% or more) invalidates these premises and indicates an immediate sale. The downside risk is the right size (2-6% max) to participate and find out if this trend really has legs.
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Not much to say here. looks like you picked a few more numbers for no particular reason (or maybe because you read them somewhere else).
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3. After moving higher a retest of 50 is a normal occurence (not a threat per se) and is to be expected.
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What does this mean? If it goes above 50 by whatever amount you deem to be sufficient then it won't go below 50? We are still talking about Newmont Mining, right? What if the dollar appreciates...a lot?
I don't really or agree with anything you wrote in this post. I'm curoius to know if you do.
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