What to do on the turn?
This is a situation that comes up all the time (5-10 6max). I think I'm too passive generally, but it's difficult to assess turn play in PT.
Anyway...
Raise preflop (not a pp), get one caller (bb or EP limper).
Miss the flop. Check, I bet, call.
Miss the turn. Check....???
I understand that whether I should bet the turn is very dependant on both the opponent and to a lesser extent on the texture of the board.
Considering the opponent:
A. player will check-call with any pair (on the river too), check-raise with 2 pair or better. Probably check the river with weak pair if I check behind on the turn. May check-call with any ace-high and will check-call with at least a gutshot draw, checking the river if it doesn't hit - your basic LP donkey.
B. player will likely check-fold a weak pair on the turn, especially on a board with multiple broadway cards, paired board, flush-straight heavy board. Will check-call with OESD or flush draw, check-fold the river if it doesn't come. Tight-passive, something of a rarity relative to LP players.
C. tricky-ag. May check-raise with OESD/flush draw on the turn. Will autobet the river if I check behind on the turn.
Ok, so not every opponent falls into these categories. But I think they cover the majority of players who will limp in EP and check-call a flop.
First, please critique my action:
vs. LP (A), I'm betting draw heavy boards, checking behind on ragged boards. vs. TP, I'm betting the turn every time. vs. tricky players, I'm at a bit of a loss, but more inclined to check behind and possibly call the river with an UI AK-J.
Too weak?
Second, I need to be pigeonhole opponents quickly and effectively while 4+-tabling. I don't think that vpip and pfr are always indicative of postflop play, and the validity of things like fold to turn bet % are not significant at single session sample sizes. Post flop Ag is no good - passivity has already been established by flop and turn checks. Essentially I'm looking for a stat that gives me a good indication of willingness to fold a weak hand and converges are a reasonable sample - maybe WTSD%?
Apologies if that was long winded.
Any thoughts appreciated.
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