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hand 1:

i'm getting 2.5:1 so i need like 7 outs to break even.
gutshot - 4 outs
backdoor flush - 1.5 outs
7's and 8's - i think they're good 50% or more. so 3 outs.

8.5 outs


might be stretching, but i think it looks ok.

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Not if you hit a 7 or 8 and he actually has top pair. You will loose even more money.